Grab a second-home bargain

18 Feb

By Paul Sullivan

FORTUNE — People selling second homes in sunny locations couldn’t have asked for a better marketing pitch than the winter of 2011. With snow turning Northern roads into ice rinks and closing airports and schools, the Sunbelt would seem to be more desirable than ever. The only glitch is the real estate hangover from the Great Recession.
But new data from Florida suggest that this may be the year when buyers and sellers come together. “We’ve outperformed January 2010 by 85%,” says Judy Green, chief executive officer of Premier Sotheby’s International Realty in Naples. “It’s almost as if someone just turned on a faucet and the people are out there. They’re making deals.”

Before leaping in, though, you need to ask yourself two questions: Why is this happening now? And how can I take advantage of it?

The “why” is a function of both the market and of sentiment about Florida. Interest rates remain historically low — the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in Florida was recently 4.9%, according to Bankrate.com — and banks are lending again, if cautiously. Now that rental prices in the coastal areas are rising, people who have dreamed about owning a second home in (or relocating to) the state see this as their moment to act — while sale prices remain off their highs.

Indeed, the uptick in sales hasn’t yet translated directly into pricing power for sellers. According to Florida Realtors, sales were up statewide in 2010 by 29% for condominiums and by 5% for homes, but prices were down 15% and 4%, respectively. (This is better than last year, when prices were down 24% for homes and 34% for condos.) A January report from Moody’s Analytics said home prices in Naples will not return to their pre-recession peak until 2038.

Those numbers mean that there are plenty of bargains to be found, and even an occasional steal. Allison Turk, an associate at EWM Realtors, just sold a house on the exclusive North Bay Road in Miami Beach for the second time in five years. In 2005 the home fetched $1.3 million; this time it went for $690,000.

There are caveats when it comes to how one should take advantage of the opportunities in Florida. Cash buyers are going to have an easier time negotiating a deal, particularly if they are using the place as a second home. Banks want to see a down payment of 20% to 25% or sterling credit for those financing. Rates are also incrementally higher for people who will use the property as a second home or a rental.

Single-family homes are where prices are firming up the quickest. “They’re easier to finance,” says Michael Timmerman, senior associate at Fishkind & Associates, an Orlando real estate consulting company. “Many condominium associations did the same thing individuals did [during the boom] — they said, ‘We don’t need to fund these reserves.’ Now buyers are worried about special assessments.”

The real estate recovery in Florida isn’t complete by any means. But in a decade smart shoppers will be boasting about the deals they got in 2011 — preferably by the pool.

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Let’s try this again: Mortgage bond ratings return with scrutiny

18 Feb

Posted by Katie Benner
Mortgage-backed securities are back, but Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch are approaching their job rating them with very different tactics.

The big three credit rating agencies are in trouble for not taking taking risk seriously enough when they examined bonds made from residential mortgages before the housing market crashed. They’ve been roundly criticized for their overly generous assumptions about housing market hazards (Prices go down? No way!), and for the abysmal way that AAA-rated, mortgage-backed bonds performed during the financial meltdown.

Now it looks like those same agencies are arguing to see who can be the toughest on those very same securities.

Redwood Trust (RWT) is getting ready to bring to market a $290.4 million residential mortgage-backed security. It’s called Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2011-1, and among other things it features a top AAA rating from Fitch. But in the prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Redwood mentions that it had “terminated” its request for Moody’s to rate Sequoia because Moody’s thought the loans in the pool were riskier than Redwood thought they were. Moody’s wanted a 10% subordination level in order to stamp the deal with an AAA rating. (Think of subordination as a protective cushion should mortgages in the pool start going bad). Fitch agreed with Redwood that a 7.5% subordination level would be fine.
Redwood can’t comment on the deal until it closes in early March. Fitch did not return calls for comment.

Given that we’ve yet to see meaningful rating agency reform since the financial crisis, Sequoia Mortgage Trust 2011-1 doesn’t come as a huge shock. Redwood got to choose its agency, and it went with the one that saw its mortgages the way it saw its mortgages.

But what is interesting is that Moody’s went ahead and issued a report on the deal anyway, even though it can’t officially rate the bonds. Moody’s read the prospectus and calculated that at least 18% of the 303 mortgages in the pool are located in the San Francisco Metropolitan Statistical Area, a definition used to identify the Bay Area’s earthquake prone region. “If a major earthquake were to strike the San Francisco MSA,” writes Moody’s in a report embedded below, “the decline in the values of damaged properties, and the likelihood that borrowers could abandon properties whose value has plummeted, will likely result in either losses to senior certificate holders or deterioration of the credit quality of the certificates to junk status.”

Noting that only 12% of homeowners in the area with a fire policy are covered for earthquake shake damage, Moody’s decided that the natural disaster risk, though small, couldn’t be ignored. Yes, the loans in the pool are very strong. They’re predominately primary homes sold to people with high incomes with 30-year fixed rate mortgages. “But an earthquake event is binary,” says Linda Stesney, a co-author of the Moody’s report. There is no gradual deterioration of credit risk when a natural disaster hits. It’s an all-at-once event that impairs the pool beyond the damage one might assume is a black swan-free world.

In a separate report, Standard & Poor’s agrees that an earthquake, mudslide or even employment prospects could disproportionately affect the San Francisco MSA, and adds that they would have looked for more credit enhancement than Redwood wanted to give.

There’s only about a 6% chance that an earthquake with the magnitude to seriously damage the homes in this pool could happen over the next five years, according to the US Geological Survey, but 6% is still higher than the odds many gave the idea that home prices could ever fall.

Now when investors think about buying a piece of the Sequoia deal, they have a little more than the AAA-rating from Fitch to go on.

This isn’t the first time the rating agencies have publicly disagreed, and absent hard and fast reform they have been encouraged to publish unsolicited ratings. When Redwood brought an RMBS to market last year (Sequoia 2010-1H), Moody’s gave it an AAA rating and S&P put out a long, dissenting report. Certainly this strategy won’t win them customers, but maybe it can help win them a little respect in a world that rates them as junk.

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Arizonans receiving little help from mortgage program

16 Feb

Arizonans receiving little help from mortgage program.

Home sales grow, aided by more stable prices

10 Feb

By Les Christie

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Home sales volume rose sharply in the final three months of 2010, aided by more stable prices on a year-over-year basis, a real estate industry group said Thursday.

Sales jumped 15.4% in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 4.8 million units compared with 4.16 million a quarter earlier, the National Association of Realtors said.

Prices of single-family homes stabilized, rising 0.2% compared with 12 months earlier. The national median for homes sold during the period was $170,600.

“Home sales clearly recovered in the latter part of 2010, and are helping to absorb the inventory, including many distressed properties,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Realtors’ group.

Sales volume was particularly strong in the West region, up nearly 20% compared with the three months ended Sept. 30.

“A good portion of the sales activity in the West has been driven by investors taking advantage of discounted foreclosures, with high levels of all-cash transactions,” said Yun.

Home prices: Your local forecast
The number of sales fell nearly 20% nationally, however, compared with the same period in 2009, when the homebuyer’s tax credit was in effect.

“The tax credit clearly poached demand from the second half of 2010,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, a New York-based appraiser. “It artificially stimulated sales in the first half and artificially lowered it in the second.”

Many housing market factors were favorable through the end of the year. Prices are very affordable for working families in most markets, interest rates are extremely low and bloated inventories offer a wide choice of properties.

The missing ingredient is a positive economic environment, specifically when it comes to hiring.

“An improving housing market and job growth will go hand in hand,” said Yun. “The housing recovery will mean faster job growth.”

He projects than a 300,000 increase in 2011 home sales will lead to the creation of about 150,000 to 200,000 jobs to the overall economy.

The survey revealed that single-family home prices held up better than those of condos. The national median for condos fell 6.4% compared with 12 months earlier, to $164,200. In some markets, condo prices have rarely been so affordable.

The median condo price in the Las Vegas metro area, for example, was just $60,700; in Phoenix, $68,900; and in Miami, $81,900. Reno, Nev., had the lowest condo prices in the nation, a median of $60,300.

As for single-family homes, Youngstown, Ohio, the old steel town struggling to find its way back into the modern economy, recorded a median of just $62,800 during the fourth quarter. That was a decline of nearly 14% from already bargain-basement prices a year earlier.

Toledo, Ohio at $74,500, Lansing, Mich. at $79,500, and South Bend, Ind. at $76,800 also recorded very low prices. Outside the Rust Belt, Ocala, Fla., was the lowest priced metro area at $80,200.

Honolulu had the highest single family home prices during the quarter, a median of $598,200. San Jose, Calif.’s median was $591,000 and San Francisco’s was $558,200.

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Arizona is perfect for biofuels, experts say

8 Feb

by Tara Alatorre

Arizona’s sunny, dry weather makes it the perfect location for farming algae to produce renewable fuels, an executive of a national biofuels group said Monday.

In addition, the state’s coal-fired power plants produce quantities of carbon dioxide that would allow for more efficient production of algae, said Joe Jobe, CEO of the National Biodiesel Board, which is holding a convention and exposition in downtown Phoenix this week.

“Arizona has a lot of carbon dioxide and a lot of sun,” he said.

However, Jobe and others at the conference said, technology that would allow for mass-production of algae is probably a decade away.

Biofuels are produced from plants and plant derivatives such as soybean oil used in deep fryers.

Jobe calls algae the future of biofuels because it has a higher yield from fewer resources and can be farmed on land that can’t be used to produce food crops, such as corn used for ethanol.

A 2009 study by the National Renewable Energy Lab rated Phoenix as the No. 1 potential place to produce algae biofuel in the U.S.

The convention drew hundreds of people to sessions about the production, politics and marketing of renewable fuels, among other subjects. An exposition allowed companies to show off their technologies for producing biodiesel.

Dan Rees, president of Gilbert-based Rev Biofuels, brought two biofuel-powered vehicles that his company uses to pick up used oil from restaurant deep fryers. His firm converts it into biodiesel that’s sold to commercial diesel fleets and individuals with diesel vehicles.

“People want to be environmentally conscious,” Rees said.

His company started as a backyard operation and since has moved into a facility capable of producing 10 million gallons of biodiesel a year.

Rees expects the industry to grow because of an Environmental Protection Agency mandate that the U.S. fuel supply include 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel by 2022.

As Rees looks toward that day, he’s eager to move his company into converting algae into fuel, but he isn’t holding his breath.

“Algae is the future, but at best it is 10 years away,” Rees said.

Bruce Rittman, director of the Center for Environmental Biotechnology at Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute, said in a telephone interview that he thinks the technology needed to mass-produce algae is likely five years away. But the infrastructure required probably means the U.S. is 15 to 20 years away from algae being a major fuel source.

The center is focused on algae-based biofuel production, farming in tubes on the roof of two buildings on ASU’s Tempe and Polytechnic campuses.

When the nation is ready for algae as biofuel, Rittman said, Arizona is positioned well to reap the benefits.

“Absolutely, there will be money flowing in,” he said.

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450,000 at risk in foreclosure-prevention program

8 Feb

By Tami Luhby

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Hundreds of thousands of troubled homeowners who are making lower mortgage payments on a trial basis are at risk of being kicked out of President Obama’s foreclosure-prevention program.
Companies that service the mortgages have until Jan. 31 to review all trial modifications that have been underway for several months under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), according to a Treasury Department guideline issued late last month. The Treasury Dept. said it would issue new guidelines next week, but wouldn’t give details.

During the review period, servicers must determine whether borrowers have made all their payments and have handed in all the necessary paperwork. Those who haven’t will get letters giving them 30 days to comply.

The goal is to clear up the backlog of borrowers stuck in trial modifications, in which a homeowner’s monthly payments are lowered to no more than 31% of pre-tax income.

Some homeowners have spent seven or eight months waiting to hear if they qualify for a permanent adjustment to their mortgages.

This directive, however, has some bank regulators concerned.

“About 450,000 homeowners currently have HAMP trial modifications and have demonstrated a willingness and ability to make timely payments for at least three months,” said Richard Neiman, superintendent of the New York State Banking Department.

“Now, unfortunately and very alarmingly, these same homeowners face the prospect of foreclosure strictly on account of documentation issues,” he said.

Paperwork has proved a major stumbling block for the president’s foreclosure-prevention program. Homeowners complain that their servicers continuously lose the documents they send in, while financial institutions argue that borrowers have not been sending in their paperwork.

Aware of the problem, Treasury officials said they plan to issue new guidance to servicers next week that will help expedite the conversion of borrowers in the trial period to permanent modification. It may also lighten the documentation requirements.

Converting to permanent modifications
Under fire for the low number of people receiving long-term help, the Treasury Department in late November ramped up pressure on servicers to convert borrowers to permanent modifications.

Some 66,500 people have received permanent adjustments, with another 787,200 homeowners in trial modifications.

Under the president’s plan, delinquent borrowers are put into trial modifications for several months to make sure they can handle the new payments and to give them time to submit their financial paperwork.

Once the modification becomes permanent, servicers, investors and homeowners are eligible to receive thousands of dollars in incentive payments.

Overall, about three-quarters of people are making their payments on time, according to the Treasury Department.

Treasury officials already lightened the documentation requirements in the fall in hopes of speeding up the conversion process. But more needs to be done, Neiman said.

For instance, Treasury should accelerate its implementation of a standardized documentation form and the creation of a Web portal that will allow homeowners to track the receipt of the paperwork, he said. Also, it should allow servicers more flexibility in accepting alternative documents.

If this isn’t done, a lot of homeowners could soon face foreclosure, he said.

“This is a real concern to borrowers, particularly borrowers who’ve continued to make payments for three, four, five, even seven months,” Neiman said.

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You lost your house – but you still have to pay

8 Feb

By Les Christie

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — As terrible as it is to lose your house to foreclosure, at least it’s a relief to put your biggest financial headache behind you, right?
Wrong.

Former homeowners may still be on the hook if there’s a difference between what they owed on their mortgage and what the bank could sell it for at auction. And these “deficiency judgments” are ticking time bombs that can explode years after borrowers lose their homes.

It can even happen to people who got their bank to approve them selling their home for less than it is worth.

Vanessa Corey, for example, short sold her Fredericksburg, Va., home in April 2008. She and her husband built the house in 2004, but setbacks, both personal (divorce) and professional (housing bust), made it impossible for the real estate agent to keep her home. So she negotiated the short sale and thought that was the end of it.

“My understanding was that the deficiency was negotiated away,” she said. “Then, last November, I got a letter from a lawyer telling me I owed my lender $65,000. I had to declare bankruptcy. There was no way I could pay it.”

Where the foreclosure plague is spreading
Many homeowners are now in the same boat. And not just those who took out bigger loans than they could afford or who did so called “liar loans” where they didn’t have to verify their income.

Because of falling home prices, borrowers who always paid their mortgage but who have run into unforeseen circumstances — like unemployment or a job transfer — can no longer sell their homes for what they owe. As a result, they are being forced to short sell or foreclose and are getting caught up in deficiency judgments.

“After the banks foreclose, it’s very common now to have large deficiencies with houses not worth the balances owed,” said Don Lampe, a North Carolina real estate attorney.

Lenders mostly declined comment. Although Corey’s lender, BB&T did indicate it was pursuing more deficiency judgments.

“They follow the rise and fall of foreclosures,” said the spokeswoman, who would not discuss Corey’s account.

Can they come after you?
Whether banks can and will pursue deficiency judgments depends on many factors, including what state the borrower lives in and whether there’s a second mortgage or other liens. But if borrowers ignore the possibility of deficiencies, it could haunt them.

“Once they have a judgment, they can pursue you anywhere,” said Richard Zaretsky, a board-certified real estate attorney in West Palm Beach, Fla. “They can ask for financial records, have your wages garnished and, if you fail to respond, a judge can put you in jail.”

In the case of foreclosure, lenders can pursue deficiencies in more than 30 states, including Florida, New York and Texas, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Network, an organization of mortgage law firms.

Some states, such as California, are “non-recourse” and don’t allow deficiency judgments. But, even there, if the original loan was refinanced, some or all of it may be subject to claims.

Check the foreclosure rate in your state
Deficiency judgments on short sales and deeds-in-lieu can happen in many more places. In these cases, extinguishing the debt is often a matter of negotiating with the bank.

But even when lenders are willing, many borrowers may not be aware that they have to ask for release. So, if you are pursuing a short sale, be sure your attorney asks the bank to release you from any further obligation.

“People shouldn’t have a false sense of security that a deficiency judgment may not be later sought,” Zaretsky said.

He expects many will be filed over the next few years, based on the fact that banks have sold many of these accounts to collection agencies and other third parties, at discount.

“The parties who bought those notes wouldn’t have paid money for them unless they had the intention of acting,” Zaretsky said.

Ticking time bomb
What can be scary is that the judgments don’t have to be obtained immediately. Lenders or collection agencies may wait until debtors have recovered financially before they swoop in. In Florida, the bank can wait up to five years to file. Once the court grants a judgment, the lender has 20 years there to collect, with interest.

It doesn’t have to be a large amount of debt for a lender or collection agency to come after borrowers. Richard Varno and his wife short sold their Nashville home back in 2004 after he lost his job.

It wasn’t until 2008, when the second lien holder asked him for $25,000, that he realized he still was liable.

“I told them, ‘Hey, you guys released the title,’” he said. “As far as I know, I’m off the hook.”

He wasn’t. Releasing title does not necessarily end the debt. It’s complicated because of variations in state law, but, generally, a mortgage has two parts: a pledge of collateral, represented by the home, and a promise to pay off the loan.

Lenders may release property liens in order to facilitate short sales without releasing borrowers from their obligations to pay under the promissory notes. The secured debt can convert to an unsecured one after the sale.

Zaretsky had one client who was so relieved to have arranged a short sale that he signed every paper his real estate agent shoved at him, even a confession that clearly stated he still owed the debt.

“He had no idea what he was doing,” said Zaretsky. “All the lender had to do was go to court to convert the confession into a deficiency judgment.”

Lenders are also very inconsistent. One of Zaretsky’s short-sale clients was ready, willing and able to pay, but the bank did not even ask; another lender always reserves the right to pursue the deficiency.

Strategic defaults
Sometimes lenders go after borrowers walking away from their homes if they have other assets, according to Florida real estate attorney Larry Tolchinsky.

“Banks are pulling credit reports to see if it’s a strategic default,” he said. “If you’re behind on all your other payments, you’re okay. But if you’re not, they’ll come after you.”

If borrowers have any doubts about their risks, they should seek legal advice. Or, at least, call non-profit organizations such as NeighborWorks for advice. According to Doug Robinson, a NeighborWorks spokesman, its counselors always try to negotiate away deficiencies when they facilitate short sales or deeds-in-lieu.

“We don’t favor any short-sale contracts that leave any deficiency that can be pursued,” he said.

Robinson himself knows what can happen. He paid off a deficiency after his own New Jersey house went through foreclosure 11 years ago.

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